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The NDA not only surpassed its own performance from 2020 but has made a striking electoral comeback in the latest assembly elections, shattering expectations and rewriting the political narrative of Bihar.
Efficient Vote Conversion and Expanded NDA Base Shift Bihar's Political Landscape
Patna: In a dramatic turn of events, early in the day, the NDA managed to consolidate its lead and extend its majority well beyond the tight margins it held five years ago, while high-profile political strategist Prashant Kishor's much-hyped campaign failed to secure significant voter traction or win seats for his newly floated party.
Surpassing the past, Bihar assembly elections were among the most intensively contested of any in recent history. The NDA has managed a razor-thin majority, barely three seats above the halfway mark in a house of 243 members, and their seat share closely mirrored that of the opposition ‘Mahagathbandhan’.
What made that victory remarkable was not just the final tally, but the efficiency with which the NDA converted votes into seats, thanks largely to its intricate caste arithmetic and an effective campaign fronted by key local leaders and the so-called “Modi factor”.
In contrast, this time the NDA has not only consolidated old bases, such as upper castes and Kurmis, but has also eaten into the opposition’s traditional vote banks, most notably, the Mahagathbandhan suffered significant losses in Muslim-dominated seats that it had previously won.
The Failure of Prashant Kishor's Gambit Much was expected from Prashant Kishor, the architect of successive election victories in the past for different parties across India. Despite his grand entry and promise-laden campaign for change, Kishor's party could not manage to win the confidence of Bihar's diverse electorate.
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It also failed to project a credible alternative or dent the formidable machinery that the NDA had assembled. According to reports from the ground, even in constituencies where his promises during polls sparked curiosity, established party dynamics and disciplined organizational machinery of the NDA proved too difficult to overcome.
Factors came together to deliver a shocking defeat. The NDA went over the top of the opposition in key moments in the election, particularly with late swings with women and consolidated caste blocks, while reshaping a new terrain regarding migrant workers, the rural poor, and youth - all groups that had displayed dissatisfaction in the previous cycle.
Dividing votes among fringe parties also weakened Mahagathbandhan. Many close contests were won by the NDA with small margins.
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In its most recent showing, the NDA has not only erased memories of the kind of close-call suspense of 2020, but also made a categorical statement about the strength of the system it has created around its electoral machine in Bihar.
The historic win of the NDA and the inability of newer challengers to break into the arena is set to define Bihar's political landscape for the foreseeable future.
