New Delhi: Tensions between India and the United States are currently escalating over the purchase of oil from Russia. US President Donald Trump recently sparked a new debate with a major statement.
He stated that India will soon stop purchasing oil from Russia and that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has personally assured him of this decision. This statement comes at a time when the US is urging its allies to reduce their dependence on Russian oil as part of a strategy to increase pressure on Russia.
Trump’s Claim
During an Oval Office media interaction, President Trump stated that he and Prime Minister Modi have a “great relationship.” He also stated that Modi has assured him that India will soon stop purchasing oil from Russia. Trump described this move as a “major step towards isolating Russia.” He said, “I’ve been told that Modi is a wonderful person. He has assured us that India will no longer buy Russian oil. This change won’t happen immediately, but the impact will be felt gradually.”
Trump further stated that India’s move would pave the way for pressure on China to also reduce its oil purchases from Russia.
India’s Silence—No Official Confirmation
The Indian government has yet to provide any official response or confirmation following Trump’s statement. The Indian Embassy in Washington also declined to comment. It is unclear whether Prime Minister Modi actually made such a promise to Trump.
US Pressure and Economic Impact
The Trump administration has already imposed additional tariffs (import duties) on countries that buy oil from Russia. India has also been hit with tariffs of up to 50%, including a 25% additional duty on Russian oil.
The US alleges that India and China are indirectly funding the Ukraine war by purchasing Russian oil.
If India indeed stops buying oil from Russia, it will have a direct impact on the Indian economy. Experts estimate that the country’s annual oil import bill could increase by approximately $12 billion. By 2026–27, this burden could reach $11.7 billion.
What options does India have?
If oil supplies from Russia stop, India will again have to turn to Middle Eastern countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq. However, oil from there is not as cheap as Russian oil. This will increase fuel prices and lead to inflationary impacts on ordinary consumers.
Russia’s Role and India’s Dependence
After Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia following the Ukrainian war, India began purchasing Russian oil at discounted prices.
While Russia’s share in India’s oil imports was only 1.7% in 2019–20, it will increase to over 35% in 2024–25. Russia is now India’s largest oil supplier—about 88 million metric tons of oil come from Russia alone, accounting for 245 million metric tons.
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Balancing Diplomacy and Economics
Trump’s statement clearly indicates that the US is increasing geopolitical pressure on India. But this decision is not easy for India—because cheap Russian oil is not only beneficial for the economy but also plays a vital role in maintaining domestic fuel stability.
It will be interesting to see how India balances this political pressure with economic necessity in the future.