Crude Oil Prices: Will Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Bring Relief at the Petrol Pump?

Brent crude fell 1.4% to $103.35 a barrel as hopes of a Russia-Ukraine energy truce eased supply fears, while Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks kept prices elevated

Post Published By: Sreeja Chowdhury
Updated : 12 October 2026, 8:25 AM IST

New Delhi: Crude oil prices declined on Monday as hopes of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire raised expectations of improved supplies. However, escalating Middle East tensions and attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz continued to support prices above $100 per barrel.

Brent crude futures fell 1.4% to $103.35 per barrel in the latest reported trading, reflecting a mixed outlook for global energy markets. While the possibility of additional Russian supplies eased concerns over shortages, security risks in the Middle East continued to threaten oil shipments.

Russia-Ukraine Energy Truce Puts Pressure on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacks on each other's energy infrastructure. The announcement followed a statement on Friday regarding a diesel supply deal with Moscow.

The proposed ceasefire raised hopes that energy infrastructure could face fewer disruptions, potentially allowing Russian oil supplies to increase and easing pressure on international crude prices.

However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was still waiting for details of the agreement. Russia had not publicly commented on Trump's announcement at the time of reporting, leaving uncertainty over the scope and implementation of the proposed arrangement.

Market participants are closely watching developments in the conflict, as any improvement in energy flows could influence crude prices in the coming sessions.

Middle East Conflict Keeps Brent Crude Above $100

Despite easing supply concerns linked to Russia and Ukraine, the broader Middle East conflict continued to pose risks to global oil markets.

The Iran linked Houthi group claimed responsibility for a Saturday attack on Riyadh's international airport that reportedly killed 13 people and injured more than 300. Saudi authorities also reported further injuries following another attack on Sunday.

Trump said the United States was considering joining Saudi Arabia in strikes against the Houthis, raising concerns about a possible escalation of regional hostilities.

The wider confrontation involving Iran, the United States and Israel has intensified concerns over the safety of energy shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil transit routes.

Tanker Attacks Raise Fresh Supply Disruption Fears

Recent attacks on commercial vessels have added another layer of uncertainty to the crude oil outlook. According to the reports , a tanker was struck by a drone near Oman's Sohar anchorage, while another vessel was damaged by an unidentified projectile while crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

Such incidents could disrupt the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports and limit further declines in oil prices if shipping risks persist.

Separately, the US Department of Energy approved an emergency exchange involving up to 4 million barrels of crude oil from strategic reserves to help address supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Isaias.

With potential Russian supply increases weighing on prices and geopolitical risks providing support, the direction of crude oil markets will depend on developments in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and key global shipping routes.

 

Location :  New Delhi

Published :  12 October 2026, 8:25 AM IST