Bihar Election 2025 Phase 2: Who will dominate the Seemanchal battleground?

Patna: The second phase of Bihar Assembly elections 2025 is underway today across 122 constituencies in 20 districts. This phase comes after polling in 121 seats across 18 districts in the first round. A total of 1,302 candidates, including 136 women, are contesting this phase. Polling is being held at 45,399 centers for 3.7 crore eligible voters, including 1.95 crore men and 1.74 crore women. Results are expected on 14 November. Historical Context and Party Performance In the 2020 elections, the BJP won 42 of these 122 seats, followed by the RJD with 33, JDU with 20, Congress with 11, and the Left with 5. In 2015, when JDU and RJD were allies, the NDA tally had fallen to 36 while the JDU-RJD-Congress block secured 80 seats, showing how alliances shape Bihar politics. Regional Dynamics The 122 constituencies in this phase cover Bihar's central, western, and northern regions. BJP traditionally dominates Tirhut, Saran, and northern Mithilanchal, including East Champaran, West Champaran, Sheohar, Sitamarhi, and Saran districts. JDU has a stronghold in Bhagalpur, while Mahagathbandhan controls the Magadh region, covering Gaya, Aurangabad, Nawada, Jehanabad, and Arwal. Congress relies largely on allies in these areas. Bihar Election 2025 Phase 2 Begins: Will Nitish Kumar’s ministers retain their seats? The Seemanchal Battleground Seemanchal, comprising Purnea, Araria, Kishanganj, and Katihar, is one of the most politically sensitive regions in Bihar. These 24 constituencies have a significant portion of Bihar’s 17 percent Muslim population. The 2020 election saw BJP winning eight seats, JDU four, Congress five, RJD and CPIML one each, and AIMIM winning five seats. This phase has witnessed extensive campaigning from all parties, with leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Rahul Gandhi touring the region to court voters. Caste Arithmetic and Electoral Impact Extremely Backward Classes, making up 36 percent of Bihar’s population, are expected to play a decisive role in this phase. Central and western districts see Nitish Kumar relying on EBC support, while Congress and other opposition parties are targeting these voters. Non-Yadav OBCs remain a key focus for NDA to counter RJD’s core Yadav voter base. Scheduled Castes in Ara, Buxar, and Rohtas districts may influence outcomes in tightly contested constituencies. High Stakes and Anticipation With a combination of regional, caste, and community factors, Phase 2 of the Bihar elections could reshape the political landscape. Party strategists are closely analyzing voter behavior from the first phase to maximize gains, while leaders hope for strong showings in their respective strongholds. The final results on 14 November will indicate whether the NDA retains its edge or if the Mahagathbandhan and regional parties can make significant inroads.