India’s Drought Concerns Deepen as El Niño Threatens Rabi Crops and Food Prices

Drought in three Indian states, weak kharif sowing and low reservoir levels are raising concerns over rabi crops and food inflation as El Niño strengthens and supply risks grow.

Post Published By: DN Bureau

Updated : 12 October 2026, 4:09 PM IST

Drought fears across Indian states raise concerns over crop output and food inflation (Img: Pinterest)

New Delhi: India’s agricultural outlook faces mounting uncertainty as drought conditions affect three states, with two more under assessment. Low reservoir levels, weaker crop sowing and the prospect of intensifying El Niño conditions have raised concerns over the upcoming rabi season and potential pressure on food prices.

According to reports, drought has been declared across several areas of Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Telangana and Rajasthan have also been flagged for possible drought, with state-level assessments underway.

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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported strong El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific, which are expected to strengthen towards the end of the year. While “super El Niño” is not an official meteorological classification. the term generally describes unusually strong warming in the Pacific Ocean that can influence global weather patterns.

Five States Account for a Significant Share of Output

According to the reports , Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh collectively produced 1,400.3 lakh tonnes of foodgrain in 2025-26, accounting for 37.7% of the total output across the 20 states .

Simultaneous crop losses across several major producing states could prove difficult to offset through higher output elsewhere, increasing the importance of reservoir recovery and winter sowing trends.

Rice and Wheat Buffers Offer Some Relief

According to the reports ,  weaker harvests do not automatically translate into higher food inflation. The impact will depend on production losses, existing inventories, government stock releases, imports and substitution between commodities.

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Rice and wheat have relatively stronger supply buffers. Maize and pulses, however, face greater risks. Maize is widely used in animal feed, starch, processed foods and ethanol production, while pulse availability depends partly on imports and international market conditions.

Businesses Face Procurement and Cost Pressures

Food manufacturers could feel the impact through higher procurement costs and increased working-capital requirements before broader inflation becomes visible. Agriculture accounts for 57% of intermediate consumption in food products, beverages and tobacco manufacturing.

It is important to note that, final kharif output, rabi sowing, reservoir levels and vulnerable commodity prices as key indicators to watch. Although a food inflation shock is not inevitable, prolonged weather stress could narrow the room available for businesses and policymakers to respond.