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Current policies are still putting the Earth on a path to 2.8 degrees Celsius, down from last year’s 3.1 degrees Celsius. This is stated in the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2025.
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New Delhi: Even if all countries fully implement their climate improvement pledges, global temperatures could rise by 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius this century. This figure is slightly lower than last year's prediction of 2.6-2.8 degrees. However, current policies are still putting the Earth on a path to 2.8 degrees Celsius, down from last year's 3.1 degrees Celsius. This is stated in the United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2025.
The report states that the world is still far from the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree target. Temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next decade unless countries act quickly.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said that countries have three opportunities under the Paris Agreement to fulfill their promises, but they have missed the target each time. National plans have made some progress, but they are not fast enough. Therefore, we need to reduce emissions relentlessly, especially in this difficult geopolitical situation.
This report comes just before the UN Climate Summit, where world leaders will gather. Let's understand the report's key findings.
How far are we from the Paris goal?
The 2015 Paris Agreement committed the world to limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. However, the report says that if countries fulfill their current pledges (NDCs), temperatures will rise by 2.3-2.5 degrees. This is slightly better, but still dangerous. Current policies are pointing the way to 2.8 degrees.
The report warns that temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees within the next 10 years. To prevent this, the rise must be limited to just 0.3 degrees. Temperatures must be brought down by 2100. If this is not done, disasters like floods, droughts, and extreme weather will increase.
Countries' pledges: How many have been met?
Only a third (65 countries) of the 195 Paris Agreement countries submitted new or updated national pledges (NDCs) this year. These countries cover 63 percent of global emissions. The remaining countries continued with their old plans.
G20 countries, which account for 77 percent of global emissions, are also not on track to meet their 2030 targets. Deeper reductions are needed by 2035, but they are also lagging behind. The report says that rich countries promised to support poorer countries, but that too is not being fulfilled.
Emissions in 2024: Record Levels
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 57.7 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2024, a 2.3 percent increase from the previous year. More than half of this increase came from deforestation and land use changes. Emissions from fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) also continued to rise.
Among the top emitters, India and China recorded the largest increases. The European Union was the only major economy where emissions decreased. The report states that, compared to 2019 levels, emissions must be reduced by 26 percent by 2030 and 46 percent by 2035 to achieve the 1.5 degree target.
Expert Opinion: Time to Wake Up
Climate experts have called the report a warning sign. Rachel Cleetus of the Union of Concerned Scientists said the figures are worrying, infuriating, and heartbreaking. Weak action by rich countries and obstruction by fossil fuel interests are to blame.
Richard Black of Ember said national renewable energy plans paint a positive picture of the clean energy transition. Catherine Abreu of the International Climate Policy Hub emphasized that the Paris Agreement is not failing, but rather that some powerful G20 countries are failing to keep their promises.
Urgent action needed
The report concludes that without rapid and substantial emissions reductions, the world will be plunged into catastrophic warming. This will hit poor and vulnerable countries the hardest. Renewable energy, forest protection, and the abandonment of fossil fuels are essential.
This report reminds us that time is running out. If we don't act now, future generations will suffer. Climate change is everyone's responsibility, but wealthy countries must take the lead.
