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Bay cyclone threat grows as southern India receives rain (Img: IMD)
New Delhi: The Bay of Bengal is showing signs of a potentially powerful cyclone, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that a cyclonic storm could form by Monday. The system, currently a low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal, is expected to intensify over the next few days.
Global weather models are tracking the developing system under the provisional designation 98B. If it develops into a cyclone, it will be named Arnab, following the regional naming protocol, with the name contributed by Bangladesh.
The low-pressure area is forecast to move west-north-westwards and intensify into a deep depression by Sunday before becoming a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by Monday morning. It could strengthen further over the following two days while moving towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts. Some global models suggest the system could reach at least severe cyclonic storm intensity.
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The IMD has issued fishermen warnings for the Karnataka and Kerala coasts, Lakshadweep, Comorin and adjoining Maldives waters over the next four days. Warnings also cover the Gulf of Mannar, the Sri Lankan coast, the Andaman Sea and other parts of the Bay of Bengal.
Weather conditions could become more active as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) strengthens from Saturday, potentially supporting thunderstorm activity and cyclone formation over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea over the next fortnight.
The IMD has also indicated the possibility of another low-pressure area forming over the south-east Bay of Bengal in about a week. This could further improve rainfall prospects over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
Meanwhile, a separate low-pressure area over the south-east Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep could interact with the developing Bay system. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has suggested that the two systems could reinforce each other, potentially strengthening both. Under one scenario, the Arabian Sea system could move northwards along the Kerala-Karnataka coast towards Goa.
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The IMD, however, has indicated that south-westerly winds could push the Arabian Sea system across the southern peninsula towards the south-west Bay of Bengal, near south Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka. It could eventually merge with the developing system, bringing another spell of intense north-east monsoon rainfall next week.
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal have recorded a strong recovery in rainfall since October began, with the north-east monsoon delivering a further boost after October 15. IMD data show rainfall was 23 per cent above normal during October 1-21, while the surplus reached 109.3 per cent during October 15-21.
The IMD has forecast normal to above-normal rainfall across the subdivision between October 22 and November 4.
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Other parts of southern India have also seen improvements, although rainfall remains uneven. Coastal Karnataka shifted from a 33 per cent deficit during October 1-21 to an 83 per cent surplus during October 15-21. South Interior Karnataka moved from a 39 per cent deficit to a 58 per cent surplus.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam narrowed their rainfall deficit from 71 per cent to 33 per cent, while North Interior Karnataka reduced its shortfall from 88 per cent to 66 per cent.
