India faces a high-stakes choice as Putin lands: will Modi secure cheaper Russian oil despite US tariffs, or protect trade ties with Washington? Defence deals, energy stakes, and diplomacy collide in a summit that could reshape India’s global balancing act.
Defence remains the strongest link in India-Russia ties
New Delhi: As Russian President Vladimir Putin is set for his arrival in India, all eyes are on the high-stakes discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The visit is expected to deepen the India-Russia strategic partnership through key trade and defence agreements.
However, the backdrop of US-imposed tariffs on Indian imports due to its Russian oil purchases adds a layer of complexity to the negotiations.
India faces a critical choice; continue benefiting from cost-effective Russian crude or safeguard its trade relations with the United States. Analysts suggest that the upcoming Modi-Putin talks could provide New Delhi with an opportunity to recalibrate its energy strategy.
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The Russian delegation includes top executives from major energy and defence firms, such as Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, Sberbank, and arms exporter Rosoboronexport, signaling that energy cooperation will be a priority.
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According to sources, Moscow may seek India’s assistance in securing spare parts and technology for oil operations affected by Western sanctions. India is also expected to push for the restoration of ONGC Videsh Ltd’s 20% stake in the Sakhalin-1 oil project in Russia’s Far East.
Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov addressed the issue of US tariffs, calling them a “bilateral matter” between Washington and New Delhi, unrelated to Russia. He stressed that Russia’s priority is to expand trade volumes with India, including boosting Indian exports to the Russian market.
While sanctions have caused temporary disruptions in Russian oil trade, Peskov assured that any shortfall in supply would be addressed in due course.
Harsh Pant, head of foreign policy studies at the Observer Research Foundation, told Reuters that recent US–Russia diplomatic engagement on the Ukraine conflict could provide India with greater flexibility to engage Moscow without severely impacting its relationship with the United States.
Russian-made Sukhoi-30 jets remain the backbone of India’s fighter squadrons, and Moscow has offered its latest Su-57 aircraft, which is expected to be discussed during the visit. However, India has not yet finalized any decision on acquiring the jets.
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India may also negotiate for additional units of the S-400 air defence system. Currently, three units are operational in India, with two more pending delivery under a 2018 agreement. Defence ties, analysts say, provide a steady pillar in the bilateral relationship, even as energy trade faces external pressures.
The Modi-Putin summit is likely to address these intertwined issues of energy, defence, and trade. While the outcome of the meeting remains uncertain, it could redefine India’s approach to balancing relations between two major powers Russia and the United States without compromising strategic interests.
