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India’s smartphone shipments are projected to fall around 20% in Q3 2026 as rising component costs and expensive handsets weigh on demand. (Img: Pinterest)
New Delhi: India’s smartphone market is bracing for a steep contraction in shipments in the third quarter of 2026, with rising component costs, expensive handsets and weakening consumer demand putting pressure on manufacturers ahead of the festive season.
Preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research project a year-on-year decline of around 20% in India’s smartphone shipments in the July–September quarter. The downturn follows consecutive quarterly declines and reflects mounting affordability concerns as manufacturers pass higher memory and component costs on to buyers.]
The sharp increase in memory prices has emerged as a major challenge for the industry. According to Counterpoint Research, memory costs have risen fivefold over the past year, forcing smartphone manufacturers to increase retail prices to protect margins.
Average smartphone retail prices in India have climbed around 20% so far in 2026, according to the estimates cited in the report. Several brands have raised prices on existing models, while newly launched devices are increasingly entering the market at higher price points than their predecessors.
The price increases are particularly affecting budget-conscious buyers, who are postponing upgrades or reconsidering purchases. While premium and upper-mid-range devices have shown greater resilience, demand in more price-sensitive categories remains under pressure.
The slowdown has hit major smartphone manufacturers unevenly. Xiaomi recorded a 30% year-on-year fall in global shipments in the third quarter, while Oppo and Vivo reported declines of around 20% each, according to the preliminary data cited by media houses.
Samsung retained its position as the world’s largest smartphone vendor, with a 23% market share, followed by Apple at 22%. Xiaomi accounted for 10%, Oppo for 9% and Vivo for 8%.
Samsung’s shipments declined by a comparatively modest 3%. The company benefited from stable component supplies and demand for its Galaxy Z Fold8 foldable device, while its mid-range Galaxy A series also gained from the supply challenges faced by some competitors.
Apple’s market share crossed 20% for the first time in the third quarter, reaching 22%, even as its shipment volumes declined year-on-year.
The absence of a more affordable standard iPhone 18 model during the September launch period contributed to the volume pressure, with the device expected to arrive early next year. However, the iPhone 18 Pro range reportedly recorded stronger post-launch demand than previous Pro generations.
Apple has also begun raising prices on its premium portfolio, signalling that even manufacturers with stronger positions in the high-end segment are not insulated from rising production costs.
The weakness in shipments is particularly significant for India, where manufacturers typically build up distributor and retailer inventories during the third quarter in anticipation of festive-season sales.
However, higher handset prices and subdued demand have prompted companies to exercise greater caution in stocking channels this year. The usual festive boost may therefore be insufficient to offset the underlying slowdown.
Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak has warned that the worst may not yet be over for the industry. The next quarter could face further pressure as even Samsung and Apple reassess production orders amid rising costs and uncertain demand.
The market downturn is prompting smartphone companies to focus increasingly on profitability rather than shipment growth. With component costs elevated and consumers becoming more selective, manufacturers have limited room to absorb price increases or rely on discounts to stimulate purchases.
A sustained recovery in shipment volumes will depend significantly on whether memory and other component costs ease, allowing handset prices to become more affordable. For now, the combination of expensive devices, cautious consumer spending and constrained promotional activity points to a difficult period for smartphone makers, particularly those dependent on high-volume sales in the budget and mid-range segments.
