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A new parliamentary assessment warns that changes unfolding in Bangladesh could reshape India’s strategic environment in lasting ways, demanding careful diplomacy, sharper regional focus, and timely recalibration to avoid losing influence in a close neighbour.
The committee said the current situation is not an immediate crisis but a long term shift.
New Delhi: A parliamentary standing committee on external affairs has issued a strong caution about developments in Bangladesh, describing the situation as India’s most significant strategic challenge since the events that led to the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. The panel, led by Shashi Tharoor, underlined that while the circumstances are different from the past, the stakes are high and demand sustained attention from New Delhi.
The committee made it clear that the present scenario does not resemble the humanitarian and military crisis of 1971. There is no immediate threat of conflict or breakdown of order. However, it stressed that the challenge today is deeper and more enduring, involving a possible shift in political orientation and strategic alignment that could affect India for generations.
One of the strongest observations in the report is the warning that India could lose strategic space in Dhaka not through confrontation but through neglect. The panel noted that failure to recalibrate policy at this critical juncture could gradually erode India’s influence, making it less relevant in a country that has long been central to its neighbourhood strategy.
The committee tabled its findings in Parliament after consulting both government officials and independent experts. Their assessment suggests that India’s challenge with Bangladesh has evolved from short term crisis management to managing a complex long term relationship shaped by internal political change and shifting external partnerships.
The report pointed out that Bangladesh is undergoing a political transition that could alter its strategic outlook. While stability is expected to continue, the nature of governance and foreign engagement may change in ways that impact India’s security interests, border management, and diplomatic priorities across eastern South Asia.
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A major area of concern highlighted by the panel is the apparent recalibration of Bangladesh’s relations with Pakistan alongside a growing engagement with China. The committee noted that these shifts could dilute India’s traditional influence and complicate its regional security planning, particularly if external powers gain deeper strategic access.
The panel drew attention to several infrastructure and defence related projects involving China. These include expansion work at Mongla Port, development activity at Lalmonirhat Airbase, and a submarine base at Pekua with capacity far exceeding Bangladesh’s current naval assets. Such projects, the report noted, carry implications beyond development and must be viewed through a strategic lens.
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Another key observation was China’s outreach across Bangladesh’s political spectrum. The panel noted that Chinese engagement is not limited to the ruling establishment but extends to various groups, including Islamist organizations. This broad based approach was seen as a factor that could reshape political and strategic equations in the country.
The committee expressed concern over the growing visibility of Islamist forces in Bangladesh’s political space. It highlighted that Jamaat e Islami, once banned from electoral participation, has regained its registration. This change allows the group to contest upcoming elections, potentially influencing domestic politics and foreign policy orientations.
To respond effectively, the panel advised the Indian government to closely monitor any attempt by foreign powers to establish military footholds in Bangladesh. It also urged India to offer Dhaka tangible advantages through development cooperation, connectivity projects, and access to ports, ensuring that partnership with India remains attractive and mutually beneficial.
In conclusion, the committee emphasized that while the situation will not spiral into chaos, it requires careful and calibrated handling. The evolving dynamics in Bangladesh represent a test of India’s diplomatic agility and long term strategic vision in its immediate neighbourhood.
