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ISI rethinks Khalistan strategy as grassroots support declines (Img: IANS)
New Delhi: Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is continuing its efforts to revive the Khalistan movement in Punjab, channeling substantial funds into the campaign, allegedly cultivating links with criminal gangs and backing groups operating from abroad.
But intelligence assessments indicate that the strategy is struggling to translate into support on the ground. The movement, officials suggest, has gained far greater visibility on social media than among people in Punjab.
Many who once supported the cause and contributed generously to it have since distanced themselves, raising questions about the movement’s declining appeal and the methods being used to sustain it.
An official said many people were stepping away after concluding that the movement had increasingly come to resemble a criminal network involved in the drugs and arms trade, as well as extortion.
The banned organisation Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), among the most vocal advocates of Khalistan, is meanwhile attempting to reshape its approach. The group has repeatedly targeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi and organised referendums calling for a separate Khalistan carved out of Punjab.
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However, these events are reportedly attracting far fewer participants than before. According to an assessment of recent gatherings, the SFJ has struggled to draw crowds of more than 20 to 30 people.
“However, when the content is put up on social media, there is a lot of re-working of the videos that is done in a bid to amplify the event,” the official said.
Canada has traditionally been an important base for the Khalistan movement, with sections of the Sikh diaspora backing the cause. An official, however, said that support had fallen sharply in recent years.
“The support base among the Canadian Sikhs for the Khalistan movement, which was at around 20 to 30 per cent, has dropped to below 5 per cent now,” the official said.
According to the official, many members of the Sikh community increasingly view organisations such as the SFJ as a liability. Their alleged criminal links and association with dangerous syndicates, the official said, risk damaging the reputation and undermining the efforts of Sikhs living in countries such as Canada.
Another official said perceptions had also shifted after the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) identified Khalistani elements as a serious national security threat.
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The rejection of asylum claims by Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB) and federal courts has added to the difficulties faced by Khalistani activists. Some of these claims have been characterised as opportunistic, according to the account provided by officials.
An Intelligence Bureau official said Indian and Canadian agencies were now working closely on the issue. The official added that the groups’ own activities had weakened their standing and undermined their stated cause.
“The lack of major donations and the declining support for the moment has made them desperate for funds. They have been threatening the Sikh diaspora to dole out money and in the bargain have modelled themselves as desperate extortionists rather than activists fighting for a cause,” the official said.
Despite the reported decline in support, Indian agencies are continuing to monitor the groups closely. Officials believe the loss of traction could make some elements more desperate and increase the risk of attempts to carry out a major incident.
The ISI is also reassessing its approach and considering increased spending on the Khalistan movement, officials said. However, the Pakistani intelligence agency is understood to be wary of funds being diverted by financially strained groups such as the SFJ.
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Instead, the ISI is expected to support the organisation’s social media campaigns and invest in political advocacy groups to maintain visibility and influence.
In 2023, a Sikh delegation met Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and said that measures taken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the Sikh community had contributed to the waning of the movement.
An official said the SFJ would seek to counter such statements by promoting narratives portraying the Indian government as anti-Sikh. The group hopes such messaging will deepen divisions between the Sikh community and the Narendra Modi government and potentially fuel unrest in Punjab, the official said.
