IMD cuts rainfall forecast to 90% of normal due to El-Nino concerns
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its southwest monsoon forecast downward to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), intensifying concerns over agricultural output, rising food prices and water shortages across several states. Earlier, the weather office had projected rainfall at 92% of the LPA.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall between 90% and 95% of the LPA is categorised as “below normal.” The southwest monsoon is crucial for India as it contributes nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall and supports millions of farmers dependent on rain-fed agriculture.
The weather agency linked the weaker monsoon forecast to the likely emergence of El-Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean during the monsoon season. El-Nino is a climate pattern marked by warmer sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific, often resulting in reduced rainfall over India.
Meteorologists warned that deficient rainfall may particularly affect central India, northwest India and parts of the southern peninsula. However, some northeastern regions are expected to receive near-normal precipitation.
A below-normal monsoon could significantly impact the sowing and productivity of key rain-fed crops such as pulses, oilseeds, rice and cereals. More than half of India’s farmland still relies heavily on seasonal rainfall, making monsoon performance critical for rural incomes and food supply.
Economists believe weak rainfall may also increase inflationary pressure. Lower agricultural production could push up prices of vegetables and essential food items in the coming months. The concern comes amid already elevated global fuel prices, which continue to influence transportation and input costs.
Several state governments have reportedly begun preparing drought-management strategies, including water conservation measures and promotion of drought-resistant crop varieties ahead of the kharif sowing season.
The IMD has also forecast above-normal heat wave conditions in states including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana and Odisha. Weather experts said the next few weeks will be crucial in monitoring monsoon progress over Kerala, which marks the official onset of the rainy season in India.
If the forecast holds, this could become the third consecutive year of below-normal monsoon conditions linked to El-Nino.
