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Mounting protests, economic collapse, and rising geopolitical tensions have pushed Iran toward a dangerous crossroads. With US warnings, Israeli strikes, and potential backing from Russia and China, the unfolding crisis could escalate into a wider global conflict.
Warning signals or war cry in Iran
Tehran: If Iran–US shadow boxing converts into an all-out war, it will intensify tension in the region and spell doom for the world. If the war escalates and spills out of Iran, it could draw Russia and China into the conflict.
The protests in Iran, which started against economic collapse, gradually turned into anti-regime protests. The 1979 uprising formally marked the end of Iran’s monarchy, and Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi went into exile as the last Iranian monarch.
The Imperial State of Iran was changed into the Islamic Republic of Iran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s right-wing doctrine was adopted to govern the country.
Iran on the Brink: Protests Turn Deadly as Economic Anger Challenges the Regime
Iran was once considered a power to reckon with among anti-Western forces. In the last three years, its power has diminished rapidly, first due to widespread demonstrations in 2022, known as the “Women, Life, Freedom” movement.
This movement against social repression of women was largely restricted to cities and failed to mobilize the poor, but it still rocked the government.
Iran’s real decline started in 2024 when Israel decimated its regional allies, Hezbollah and Hamas. One of Iran’s most important allies, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was toppled by rebels with support from Israel and the US.
In June 2025, Israel killed top security officials, disintegrated military infrastructure, and pounded nuclear facilities along with the US in a 12-day war.
An impasse on nuclear negotiations led to sanctions against Iran by the US and Europe. These sanctions pushed Iran’s economy to new lows. Their impact was compounded by rising corruption, decades of financial mismanagement, growing wealth disparity, and the free fall of the Iranian rial.
Economic pain due to the devaluation of the Iranian rial to 994,055 against the US dollar spurred the poor and middle class to hit the streets against Iranian authorities.
The Iranian administration is oscillating between suppressing the agitation and addressing the economic grievances of the people. As pressure from the economic uprising mounts, the government is attempting a quick-fix solution by adopting an iron-fist policy to crush the rioters.
Why Is the Situation Spiraling Out of Control?
According to the US-based Human Rights Activist News Agency, police have detained around 10,600 people over a fortnight of unrest. The agency has also verified the deaths of 495 protesters and 48 security personnel in Iran.
Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets as protests escalated across Iran into a second week. The crackdowns became more violent, drawing international criticism of Tehran’s actions against dissent.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking to foreign diplomats in Tehran, blamed the protests on terrorist operatives. He alleged the presence of armed cells aiming to turn demonstrations into nationwide violence.
Araghchi accused protesters of following external agendas and destabilizing the country. He further added that Iran faces growing unrest, international pressure, and warnings from US President Donald Trump against any violent crackdown.
Iran’s administration has blamed the US and the West for the protests. Iran’s attorney has threatened protesters with dire consequences if they do not obey the law. He said anyone protesting would be considered an “enemy of God,” an offence that carries the death penalty.
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Khamenei has blamed the US and Israel for fanning protests in Iran. He said that “rioters must be put in their place.” Khamenei dismissed anti-government protests as anti-national and labelled demonstrators a “bunch of vandals” seeking to “please” Trump.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene in Iran over the killing of protesters. He warned the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei-led government to stop the crackdown on innocent demonstrators.
Responding to the US threats, Iran’s parliament speaker warned that any American adventurism in Iran would lead to conflict, and US military bases, Israel, and American military and shipping centers would become legitimate targets.
In the event of war with the US, Iran would have to bear the brunt largely alone, though it would receive support from Russia and China.
Russia has a strategic partnership with Iran and has signed major cooperation agreements recently. In the event of war with the US, Russia would support Iran with weapons, intelligence, and diplomatic backing at the UN, though it is unlikely to participate directly in combat.
Russia supplied S-300 systems and Su-35 jets to Iran in 2025. Moscow could also provide vital satellite data and intelligence on US troop movements.
China is one of Iran’s major economic lifelines. Despite Western sanctions, China remains Iran’s largest oil customer. In the event of war, Beijing could help prevent Iran’s economy from collapsing. However, China’s policy avoids direct military intervention in foreign conflicts.
