Politics of Muslim votes in Bihar: Whose side will the minority voters go to?

Bihar’s Muslim votes, crucial in 87 seats, mostly favor RJD-Congress alliance. JDU-NDA’s share remains low. Upcoming elections will reveal if alliances reshape Muslim voter preferences.

New Delhi: Political activity has intensified in Bihar regarding the upcoming assembly elections. All the major parties are making strategies to woo the voters. The biggest question in this entire political scenario is that in favor of which party will the Muslim vote, which is a decisive class, go?

Proportion of Muslim population in Bihar

According to the survey conducted by Nitish Kumar's government in 2022, the share of Muslims in the total population of Bihar is 17.7%, while in the 2011 census this figure was 16.9%. This number of Muslim votes has the potential to decide the result in many seats in the state.

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Where are Muslim votes most effective?

Out of 243 assembly seats in Bihar, 87 seats are such that the Muslim population is more than 20%. Apart from this, the Muslim population in 47 seats is between 15% and 20%.

The four districts of the Seemanchal region—Kishanganj (68%), Katihar (44%), Araria (43%), and Purnia (38%)—are Muslim-majority areas, and a total of 24 assembly seats fall in these four districts.

Who has a strong hold on Muslim votes?

Traditionally, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has been getting the most support of Muslim votes in the state. On the other hand, Nitish Kumar's party, JDU, usually gets 5% of Muslim votes. However, JDU got 23.5% Muslim votes when it formed an alliance with the Left parties in 2014.

Later, when Nitish contested the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections along with BJP, his Muslim vote share dropped to 6% and then to 12%.

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When RJD and JDU contested the 2015 assembly elections together, they got about 80% support of Muslim votes. But when Nitish Kumar joined NDA again in 2020, he got only 5% Muslim votes, while the RJD alliance got 76% support. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Mahagathbandhan got 80% of Muslim votes, and in 2024, this figure increased to 87%.

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Which way will the Muslim votes tilt?

The Muslim vote has become a decisive factor in the politics of the state, especially in Seemanchal and other Muslim-dominated areas. The grand alliance of RJD and Congress currently has a strong hold on Muslim votes**, while JDU and NDA still need the trust of Muslim voters.

It will be interesting to see in the upcoming assembly elections whether the possible unity of Lalu-Nitish will be able to polarize Muslim votes again or some new equation will emerge.