

Bihar’s political scene is once again in turmoil as major parties vie for power ahead of the 2025 Assembly elections. The intense battle for the Chief Minister’s post is capturing the attention of voters across the state. Read an exclusive analysis by veteran journalist Manoj Tibrewal Aakash.
New Delhi: The Election Commission has announced that voting for Bihar's 243 assembly seats will be held in two phases, November 6 for 121 seats and November 11 for 122 seats. Results will be declared on 14 November. To ensure transparency, CCTV surveillance is installed at over 100,000 polling booths, and new digital monitoring technology is being used. Approximately 69 million voters are expected to participate.
Voting for Bihar's 243 assembly seats will be held in two phases, the first phase will be held on November 6 for 121 seats, and the second phase will be held on November 11 for 122 seats. The results will be declared on November 14. To ensure transparency and fairness, the Election Commission has installed CCTV surveillance at over 100,000 polling booths and adopted new digital monitoring technology for tracking electronic voting machines. Approximately 69 million voters across the state will participate in this grand festival of democracy.
Senior journalist Manoj Tibrewal Aakash said in his show 'The MTA Speaks' Political parties had wanted to hold the elections in a single phase immediately after the Chhath festival so that a large number of migrant Biharis could return to their villages to cast their votes. However, the Election Commission decided to conduct the elections in two phases due to security, logistics, and deployment of polling personnel during the festival. Millions of Biharis work in Delhi, Punjab, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and other southern Indian states and return home for Chhath, making this issue a focus of political debate.
Bihar's politics currently revolves around two major poles—the NDA and the Grand Alliance, but there is intense tussle within both parties over seat sharing. The NDA currently comprises the BJP, JDU, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM). The Grand Alliance comprises the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress, the Left parties—CPI-ML, CPI, CPI-M—and the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP).
Within the NDA camp, Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi are adamant about seat allocation. Chirag Paswan is demanding at least 30 to 35 seats, arguing that his party has five MPs in the Lok Sabha, and therefore, should have the same representation in the Assembly. The BJP and JDU have so far offered him 25 seats, but Chirag is rejecting them, saying it doesn't do justice to his father Ram Vilas Paswan's legacy. He has a particular eye on traditional seats like Brahmapur and Govindganj.
On the other hand, Jitan Ram Manjhi's party, "Hum," is demanding 16 to 18 seats, though it is believed internally that Manjhi may settle for 10 to 12 seats. He argues that this is enough to grant his party state-level party status, which requires at least seven MLAs in the Assembly. Convincing both the BJP and JDU is difficult, as both parties are unwilling to give up their respective areas of influence.
Turning to the Grand Alliance, the situation is equally complicated. Tejashwi Yadav wants his party, the RJD, to contest at least 130 seats. Congress contested 70 seats last time, but this time has agreed to 50 to 55 seats. The problem begins where the demands of the VIP and the Left parties clash. Mukesh Sahni's VIP is unwilling to accept less than 30 seats, while the CPI-ML has demanded at least 30 seats based on its previous victory.
The CPI-ML argues that if a party like the VIP, which has neither MLAs nor MPs, can be given 20 seats, it would be unfair to give fewer seats to a party with 12 MLAs and two MPs. The CPI and CPI-M have also demanded an increase in their share. The CPI has claimed 24 seats, while the CPI(M) has requested more than six, especially the Matihani seat in Begusarai, where its longtime candidate Narendra Kumar Singh is preparing to contest on an RJD ticket.
The Grand Alliance is continuing its meetings at Tejashwi Yadav's residence. On Tuesday, CPI General Secretary D. Raja met Tejashwi and submitted a list of 24 preferred seats, stating that there is no disagreement within the Grand Alliance regarding the Chief Minister's post. With the consensus of all parties, Tejashwi Yadav will be the Chief Ministerial candidate. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha has also demanded 12 seats in Bihar, especially in the areas bordering Santhal Pargana, where it is considered influential.
Regarding the results of the last assembly elections, i.e., 2020, the NDA won 125 seats—of which the BJP won 74, the JDU 43, and the VIP and HAM four each. The Grand Alliance won 110 seats, with the RJD securing 75, the Congress 19, and the CPI(ML) 12. At that time, the difference in vote share between the NDA and the Grand Alliance was only 0.03 percent, meaning a close contest. Therefore, this time too, the contest will be extremely interesting.
However, the equations this time are quite different from the previous election. Since 2020, the coordination between the JDU and the BJP has seen several strains. There is dissatisfaction within the JDU that its role in central politics is diminishing, while the BJP has strengthened its hold in the state. Although Nitish Kumar has confirmed his intention to contest the elections in alliance with the BJP in recent months, his statements remain the focus of political interpretation.
Meanwhile, within the Grand Alliance, Tejashwi Yadav has attempted to project his image as a young and decisive leader. He has included issues such as unemployment, agrarian crisis, education, and law and order on the election agenda. Meanwhile, the BJP has highlighted the achievements of the Modi government and the special central package for Bihar.
A new equation is also emerging in this election—Prashant Kishor's Jansuraj Party. Prashant Kishor, formerly an election strategist for several parties, is now finding his own political footing. He has traveled to more than 30 districts in the state over the past two years and claims that "this time Bihar needs a new thinking." While the electoral strength of Jansuraj remains to be seen, it is certain that it could dent the vote bank of both alliances, especially among young and urban voters.
AIMIM is also working to strengthen its hold in Seemanchal and Mithila region. In 2020, it had a strong presence in four districts of Seemanchal. Asaduddin Owaisi's party is now expanding to Darbhanga, Kishanganj, Katihar, and Madhepura. This time, they are in direct competition with the RJD, as division among Muslim voters could harm the Grand Alliance.
Regarding caste equations, this factor has always been decisive in Bihar politics. The balance of Yadav, Kurmi, Kushwaha, Paswan, Rajput, and Muslim voters will determine who will win power. The BJP and JDU are attempting to center the election on backward classes and women, while Tejashwi Yadav is making social justice and youth employment his main slogan.
Meanwhile, the Election Commission has implemented the code of conduct and directed officials to ensure fair elections in every district. A special monitoring unit has been created to prevent fake information on social media, and for the first time, a "Social Media Monitoring Cell" has been activated in Bihar.
Overall, the contest in Bihar is likely to be triangular—the NDA, the Grand Alliance, and the Jansuaraj-Asaduddin Owaisi challenge. The election atmosphere is heated, and the picture will become clearer after the seat-sharing. Currently, both alliances are busy trying to placate their respective allies and appease disgruntled parties.
The question now is: will Nitish Kumar be able to return to power with his two decades of political prowess, or will Tejashwi Yadav re-establish his father Lalu Prasad Yadav's legacy? Will Chirag Paswan be able to maintain his political ground by remaining in the NDA, or will he choose a different path? And will the entry of Prashant Kishor or Owaisi completely change the equation this time?
All these questions currently lie in the public's court, where the final verdict will be cast by the EVM button on November 14. Time will tell whether a new history will be written in Bihar politics, or will the old one be repeated.