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Exit polls for the 2026 Mumbai Municipal Corporation elections suggest a strong edge for the BJP-led Mahayuti. With results due on January 16, the battle between Mahayuti and the Thackeray alliance could reshape Mumbai’s political landscape.
Mumbai Civic Elections 2026: Exit Polls Hint at a Tight Contest
Mumbai: Voting for 29 municipal corporations in Maharashtra has concluded, and all eyes are now firmly on the Mumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election — the most influential civic battle in the state. The results, scheduled to be announced on January 16, will decide who controls India’s richest municipal body. However, ahead of the official count, exit polls have already sparked intense political debate.
This election is especially significant because it is the first BMC poll after the split in Shiv Sena and NCP, making the outcome a key test of public sentiment toward new political alignments.
Mumbai Battle: Voting underway for BMC and 29 other civic bodies; Vote-count tomorrow
The contest in Mumbai has largely been bipolar. On one side is the BJP-led Mahayuti, which includes the Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena. On the other side is the alliance of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray’s MNS, an unusual but high-profile partnership.
The BMC has 227 wards, and a party or alliance needs 114 seats to secure a majority.
According to DV Research, the BJP-led Mahayuti is projected to win 107 to 122 seats, putting it close to or just above the majority mark. The Thackeray brothers’ alliance is estimated to secure 68 to 83 seats, while the Congress and Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) may win 18 to 25 seats.
The Ajit Pawar-led NCP is expected to perform poorly, with just 2 to 4 seats, while others could claim 8 to 15 seats.
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DV Research predicts a 41% vote share for the Mahayuti, compared to 33% for the Thackeray alliance. Congress-VBA may get 13%, others 10%, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP around 3%.
Axis My India suggests a stronger showing for the BJP-led bloc, projecting 131 to 151 seats for Mahayuti — a comfortable majority. Shiv Sena (UBT)+ is expected to get 58 to 68 seats, Congress+ 12 to 16, and others 6 to 12 seats.
The survey also highlights gender-wise voting patterns, with the BJP alliance attracting more women voters than its rivals.
The JVC exit poll broadly aligns with Axis My India, giving the Mahayuti around 138 seats, the Thackeray-led alliance 59, Congress-VBA 23, and others 7 seats. Vote share estimates also place Mahayuti clearly ahead.
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In terms of candidates, the BJP contested 137 seats, Shinde’s Shiv Sena 90, Ajit Pawar’s NCP 94, Shiv Sena (UBT) 163, MNS 52, Congress 143, and VBA 46.
The BMC election result will not just decide Mumbai’s civic governance but will also shape Maharashtra’s political future. A win for Mahayuti would validate the BJP–Shinde alliance, while a strong showing by the Thackeray brothers could redefine opposition unity in the state.
