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India faces record-breaking heat
New Delhi: Meteorologists are raising alarm as India braces for the possibility of a “Super El Niño” this summer—a rare and intensified climate event that could push temperatures to historic highs and disrupt the monsoon season.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño, Spanish for “the little child,” is a climatic phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean near South America. Under normal conditions, cooler waters remain near South America while warm waters accumulate near Asia, driven by steady east-to-west trade winds.
However, every 2 to 7 years, these winds weaken, allowing warm waters to flow back toward South America. This raises Pacific surface temperatures by 0.5°C or more, triggering heavy rainfall in South America while reducing cloud formation over Asia.
Why India Feels the Heat
India’s monsoon relies on moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. During an El Niño, these winds weaken or shift direction, resulting in decreased rainfall.
With clear skies dominating April through June, the sun’s rays directly heat the land, causing scorching temperatures across North, Central, and West India, including Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh.
The 2023 heatwave already offered a glimpse of this impact, with temperatures in many cities soaring between 45°C and 48°C, accompanied by a weak monsoon and prolonged dry spells.
What Makes a 'Super El Niño' So Dangerous?
A “Super El Niño” is triggered when central Pacific Ocean temperatures rise 2°C or more above average. Currently, these waters have already warmed by 0.9°C, with a massive volume of hot water lurking beneath the surface. Historical Super El Niños occurred in 1982, 1997, and 2015, leaving scientists concerned about the rapid warming this year.
The Role of Global Warming
Experts warn that global warming is exacerbating the risks. The heat trapped in the ocean is further intensifying atmospheric warming, making the potential effects of a Super El Niño even more severe.
The Possible Impact on India
If a Super El Niño develops this year, India could experience a weak monsoon, drought-like conditions, and prolonged heatwaves. North, Central, and West India are expected to bear the brunt, potentially shattering previous temperature records. In the worst-case scenario, this summer could turn the country—and the planet—into a virtual furnace.
