West Bengal Exit Polls 2026: Bengal Exit Polls Show Tight Race Between BJP and TMC

West Bengal Exit Polls 2026: Exit polls for the 2026 Bengal elections indicate a fierce contest between the BJP and the TMC. While some surveys predict a BJP government, others point to a return of the TMC. The final results will be revealed on May 4th.

New Delhi: The 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections witnessed a tremendous voter turnout this time around. In the first phase, approximately 92.88% voting was recorded across 152 seats, while the second phase also saw a massive number of voters participating across 142 seats. Now, all eyes are fixed on the results scheduled to be declared on May 4th.

What Do the Exit Polls Indicate?

The figures emerging from the exit polls this time are both intriguing and somewhat confusing. While some surveys project a lead for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), others predict a comeback for the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC).

Chanakya Survey: BJP Ahead

According to the exit poll conducted by Chanakya Strategies, the BJP could secure 150–160 seats—a tally sufficient to cross the majority mark.

Conversely, the TMC+ alliance is projected to win between 130 and 140 seats. Other parties are expected to secure 6–10 seats.

P-Marq Projection: A Significant Lead for BJP

The P-Marq exit poll projects an even larger lead for the BJP. According to this survey, the BJP is expected to win between 150 and 175 seats, while the TMC+ alliance is projected to be limited to a range of 118 to 138 seats.

A Different Picture in the Matrix

The exit poll conducted by Matrize presents a slightly different scenario. In this survey, the TMC appears poised to win between 146 and 161 seats—a figure that places them above the majority threshold. Meanwhile, the BJP is projected to secure 125 to 140 seats.

Surveys Indicating a Lead for TMC

Several major surveys suggest a return of the Trinamool Congress (TMC):

• ABP–C Voter: TMC 152–164, BJP 109–121
• Times Now–C Voter: TMC 158, BJP 115
• P-Marq: TMC 152–172, BJP 112–132
• ETG Research: TMC 164–176, BJP 105–115

In these projections, TMC comfortably crosses the majority mark (148).

Surveys Giving BJP the Edge

Some agencies are predicting a strong victory for the BJP:

• Republic–Jan Ki Baat: BJP 162–185, TMC 104–121
• India TV–PP: BJP 173–192, TMC 64–88
• India News–JKB: BJP 162–185, TMC 104–121

These surveys show BJP securing a clear majority.

Close Contest Projections

A few exit polls indicate a very tight race:

• Republic–CNX: TMC 128–138, BJP 138–148
• India Today–Axis My India: TMC 130–156, BJP 134–160
• PollStrat: TMC 142–152, BJP 125–135

Here, the contest is extremely close, and even a small margin could decide the government.

Position of Left and Others

Across most surveys, Left+ and other parties are projected to remain between 0–25 seats. This clearly indicates a direct contest between TMC and BJP in this election.

The Main Contest: BJP vs. TMC

The real electoral battle in this election lies squarely between Mamata Banerjee's TMC and the BJP. The Congress and Left parties appear to be hovering near the zero mark in the exit polls this time, effectively turning the contest into a two-way race.

What Do These Figures Reveal?

The exit polls clearly demonstrate one thing: the electoral battle is extremely fierce. While some surveys project a BJP government, others signal a return of the TMC. This means that the Bengal election is set to be incredibly exciting this time around.

It is important to remember that exit polls are merely projections. They have proven to be incorrect on numerous occasions in the past—particularly in Bengal. Therefore, the actual outcome will only become clear on May 4th.