ADB Projects Robust 6.5% Growth for India in 2025, Outpaces China in Asia

Asian Development Bank forecasts India’s GDP growth at 6.5% (2025) and 6.7% (2026), driven by strong demand and controlled inflation. Retains top spot in Asia, surpassing China’s 4.7%. CII echoes optimism amid global economic challenges.

New Delhi: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has presented a positive and optimistic picture about India's economy. In its latest report, ADB has estimated that India's GDP growth rate can be 6.5% in the year 2025 and 6.7% in 2026. There are some important reasons behind this estimate, like strong domestic demand, better monsoons, and softening of interest rates. The report also states that India will maintain its position among the fastest-growing economies in the world.

Major reasons for economic strength

According to ADB, domestic consumer demand in India remains strong, boosting production and industrial activities. Along with this, factors like continuous investment in infrastructure by the government and stability in industries and the service sector have accelerated development.

Control over inflation

The most relieving thing in the report is that now inflation has come under control. The average inflation rate is expected to be 3.8% in the year 2025, and it may be around 4% in 2026. This rate is within the target set by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) (2% to 6%).

The special thing is that the retail inflation rate (CPI) in June 2025 was only 2.1%, which is the lowest in the last 77 months. The main reason for this is the fall in the prices of food items, which has given a lot of relief to the general public.

CII's opinion

Before ADB, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) had also expressed confidence in economic reforms and said that India's GDP growth could be between 6.4% and 6.7% in 2024-25. CII believes that the Indian economy is now gradually returning to growing rapidly, which will also increase investment and employment opportunities.

Faster than China, leading in Asia

ADB's report also compares India with China and Southeast Asian countries. China's economic growth rate is estimated to be 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. Southeast Asia's growth rate is also likely to be less than this, around 4.2%–4.3%. That is, India will remain the fastest-growing country in this entire region.

India strong despite global challenges

However, ADB has also warned that global challenges in the Asia-Pacific region—such as America's tariff policy, China's real estate problem, and tensions in global trade—can create the possibility of recession. But despite this, India's position remains strong.