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New Delhi: India’s 2026 Assembly elections have delivered a wave of dramatic exit poll predictions, hinting at major political shifts across key states. From a possible power change in West Bengal to a strong BJP hold in Assam and a nail-biting contest in Kerala, the electoral landscape appears anything but settled.
West Bengal: Is Mamata Banerjee Facing Her Toughest Battle Yet?
After a record voter turnout of over 92%, exit polls suggest a potential political earthquake in West Bengal. According to the ‘Today’s Chanakya’ survey, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to take a commanding lead with around 48% vote share, significantly ahead of the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) at 38%.
In terms of seats, BJP is predicted to win approximately 192 out of 294 seats-comfortably above the majority mark-while TMC may be reduced to around 100 seats. If these projections hold, it could mark the end of Mamata Banerjee’s long-standing rule and a historic breakthrough for the BJP in the state.
Assam: BJP-Led Alliance Headed for Landslide Victory
In Assam, the BJP-led NDA alliance under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma appears poised for a dominant win. Exit polls indicate the alliance could secure around 102 seats in the 126-member Assembly, well beyond the two-thirds majority mark.
Meanwhile, the Congress-led opposition is expected to lag far behind with roughly 23 seats, signaling continued voter confidence in the ruling alliance’s governance.
Kerala: Conflicting Polls Suggest Uncertain Outcome
Kerala presents a complex picture with contrasting exit poll results:
A ‘Poll Mantra’ survey predicts a sweeping victory for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), estimating 88–92 seats, while the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) may fall to 42-46 seats.
However, ‘Today’s Chanakya’ projects a much tighter contest, with UDF at 69 seats and LDF close behind at 64.
Interestingly, the BJP could emerge as a kingmaker with around 7 seats, potentially playing a crucial role if the Assembly is hung.
Tamil Nadu: M. K. Stalin Likely to Retain Power
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls suggest continuity rather than change. The DMK-led alliance under M.K. Stalin is projected to secure around 125 seats, ensuring a comfortable majority.
A notable development is the rise of actor Vijay’s party, Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), which is expected to emerge as the main opposition with about 63 seats. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) may slip to third place with around 45 seats.
